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The UK’s energy transition is in a precarious position and investors know it.
Seagreen, Scotland’s largest offshore wind farm, was recently revealed to have been paid to switch off more than 70% of the time. In the last financial year, £2.7 billion in constraint payments were made by the national grid, money paid to generators not to generate. Why? Because we lack the infrastructure to move and store clean energy.
Spain’s power grid failed this week. Portugal’s went down soon after. What could have been mistaken for a cyber-attack or a freak technical glitch was, in fact, neither. It was a failure of infrastructure planning. And for anyone involved in the delivery of Scotland’s built environment – especially energy and utilities – it should ring loud alarm bells.
The crisis was triggered by a sudden loss of renewable generation – mostly solar – without sufficient backup storage to maintain grid frequency. It wasn’t a weather event, and it wasn’t sabotage. It was an engineering failure: a lack of grid inertia, of responsiveness and of preparedness.
I’ve spent over three decades in the construction-linked renewable sector, integrating solar, roofing and battery solutions at scale. From where I sit, this was an entirely predictable event – and it’s exactly the kind of risk the UK must now take seriously as we build out a net-zero future.
At present, we are phasing out traditional energy sources like nuclear and gas, while ramping up intermittent renewables. But too little attention is being given to what fills the gaps when those renewables drop out.
Scotland has been heavily focused on wind — an area where we excel globally. But we’ve underinvested in solar and significantly overlooked the infrastructure needed to store that power and use it when demand peaks.
That’s not just a national policy issue — it’s a planning, construction and delivery challenge. And one that developers, councils and infrastructure teams need to address together.
Two key solutions are available right now:
Battery storage – deployable at multiple scales, with near-instantaneous response times. We’re already seeing demand for rooftop solar-plus-battery systems from agricultural and commercial clients, looking to secure their own energy resilience while generating high returns through power export.
Pumped hydro storage – the gold standard in seasonal storage. Scotland is home to nine of the UK’s 11 planned pumped hydro projects, including major proposals at Ben Cruachan and Loch Ness. These systems store energy by pumping water uphill during periods of excess supply, then releasing it to generate electricity when needed.
But none of these projects are yet under construction. They are stuck in planning. This is where the construction sector must become an active voice – not just in building the infrastructure, but in helping shape the environment that allows it to be delivered. We need planning frameworks that recognise the urgency and strategic value of energy storage projects.
This is no longer a future concern. The UK nearly faced its own crisis in 2022, when a surge in demand during a summer heatwave in the southeast coincided with low wind generation. To avoid blackouts, we had to pay record prices to buy power from Belgium. That’s not sustainable — and it’s not how you build a resilient energy system.
Scotland has the skills, the sites and the solutions. But unless we accelerate planning approvals, streamline project delivery and invest where it counts, we risk importing the same vulnerabilities we saw in Spain.
The transition to clean energy is not just about what we generate — it’s about how we store, balance and distribute it. As a construction nation, we must think beyond kilowatts and start thinking in terms of capacity, flexibility and resilience.
If we fail to do that, the next blackout headline might not be about Spain. It could be about us.
Just over a week ago, Spain’s electricity grid faltered. Portugal quickly followed. In the media, speculation swirled: Was it a cyber attack? Sabotage? Hackers?
No. Investigations continue, yet the truth looks simpler and far more worrying: this was a failure of energy planning.
The power outage that took down two national grids wasn’t caused by some hostile force – it was caused by a sudden drop in renewable energy output and a failure to back it up with sufficient storage. This wasn’t a freak event. It was entirely foreseeable. And unless Scotland, and the wider UK, get serious about balancing its own energy system, we’re next.
I’ve spent over 30 years in the roofing and renewable energy sector, and I’ve never seen a more urgent need for honest, practical thinking about our energy future. We’re electrifying more of our economy – transport, homes, industry. But we’re not updating our energy infrastructure with the same urgency or realism.
The fundamental truth is this: renewables are intermittent, and we ignore that at our peril. When the sun disappears behind the clouds, solar output drops in seconds. When the wind dies down – as it often does during periods of high pressure – turbines stop turning.
In Spain, this happened in real time, and without a balanced backup in place, the system couldn’t cope. The frequency of the grid dipped below its 50 Hz threshold, and everything dropped or stopped.
This concept – grid frequency and system “balance” – may sound technical, but it’s absolutely central to keeping the lights on. It’s not enough to simply generate clean electricity. We must balance the generating technologies we deploy, and we need to balance generation with storage. Without this, the more we depend on renewables, the more fragile our system becomes.
Pumped hydro
In Scotland, we’re at a crossroads. We’re rich in wind and increasingly rich in solar. But our national approach lacks depth. We’ve been piling investment into wind power without complementing it with enough solar or sufficient storage. It’s like baking a cake and forgetting the eggs – you’re not going to like the result.
Thankfully, the solutions already exist. Battery storage, for one, is fast and flexible, and it can be deployed for homes and industry to make energy more affordable, and at grid scale. It’s a critical piece of the puzzle. But for truly seasonal storage – the ability to save vast amounts of power from windy or sunny days and release it during darker, calmer periods – pumped hydro is unmatched.
Scotland is uniquely placed here. Of the 11 pumped hydro projects in development across the UK, nine are in Scotland. Sites like Cruachan and Loch Ness could become the backbone of our energy resilience – storing clean energy when there’s too much and releasing it when we need it most.
But let’s be clear: none of these projects are under construction. They’re stuck in planning, in policy review, in bureaucratic inertia. And all the while, our national base load is shrinking – coal gone, nuclear retiring, gas under pressure. Without new thinking and faster action, we are literally risking blackout.
We’ve already had some close calls. In 2022, during a 34°C heatwave in southern UK, demand surged, wind speed dropped, and we came within a whisker of a system failure. The UK had to import electricity at almost £10 per kilowatt hour to keep the grid running. That’s not a strategy.
Spain’s blackout wasn’t a cyber-attack. It was a preview. And if we don’t get our energy mix right – with proper storage, grid investment and a smart balance between wind and solar – we’ll be next on the front pages.
Scotland has the tools, the geography and the engineering know-how. What we need now is political will, joined-up thinking and a proper recipe for energy security in a renewable future.
This isn’t simply about keeping the lights on. It’s about building a nation that’s ready for the future – and resilient enough to power through it.
A Scottish firm at the forefront of delivering solar-powered solutions has warned that the "current approach to renewable energy policy is alarmingly inadequate".
The firm says Scotland can be a leader in renewable energy but that business must have a seat at the policy-making table to help steer net zero progress.
Here, John Forster tells how his business has been shaped since he founded the firm and why he believes the voice of businesses should be heard.
Business name: Forster Group
Location: Brechin, Angus
Business Description: Founded in 1990, Forster Group has become a leading provider of smart, integrated roofing, ground and roof-mounted solar and battery storage solutions.
As a forward-thinking and innovative business, Forster Group is at the forefront of sustainable construction and renewable energy transition. We provide sustainable solutions for individuals and businesses to take more control of their energy consumption and cost.
We offer advanced integrated roofing and solar systems that helps deliver more energy-efficient homes, support net-zero goals and reduce energy costs. As a company, we’re dedicated to improving standards across the UK house-building industry and we were a key partner in the UKRI-funded Advanced Industrialised Methods for the Construction of Homes project (AIMCH).
The energy industry is in a state of flux. As someone who has spent decades working in Scotland’s renewable energy sector, I’ve witnessed first-hand just how dynamic and unpredictable this industry can be. But even I find myself awestruck by the pace of change we are experiencing now – a pace that feels exhilarating, but also deeply challenging.
We were full of enthusiasm when renewables burst onto the scene. Governments, individuals, industries, and communities were galvanized by the vision of a cleaner, greener future. Yet today, as we look back, it is worth asking: were we victims of our own early enthusiasm? In our rush to transition, we overlooked a critical question – how would we pay for this transformation, and, just as importantly, how would we make it affordable for everyone?
Affordability means different things to different people. For a working family, it’s about keeping monthly energy bills manageable. For a pensioner, it’s about making ends meet when retirement savings are tied to investments that are often beyond their control.
For businesses, including the construction and energy sectors, affordability is increasingly about balancing the cost of retrofitting buildings in the context of their capital value. Retrofitting, as we know it today, is often the unsustainable solution. We cannot sacrifice our infrastructure for the sake of meeting net-zero targets if doing so destroys economic value.
At the same time, we see global industries feeling the strain. The German car industry, once the gold standard, is now slowing dramatically under the weight of energy transition costs. This is not a uniquely German problem; it’s a global challenge demanding urgent solutions.
Compounding this is the alarming rollback on green commitments by major industries, especially oil and gas companies. Instead of leading the way, many have found it more lucrative to stick with the status quo. It’s disheartening and reminds us that energy independence must become a central focus if we are to ensure the resilience of our energy systems.
China’s dominance in the solar industry only underscores this. With a 90 per cent share in global solar production and controlling over 70 per cent of rare earth minerals, the balance of power is looking skewed.
In Scotland, the concept of a “just transition” became a rallying cry. It was supposed to ensure no one was left behind in the switch to renewables. Yet it feels like the rhetoric has far outpaced reality.
One bright spot has been the farming industry. Farmers across Scotland continue to embrace renewable energy solutions – installing solar to achieve energy independence and generating surplus energy as a new crop. Their resilience and adaptability offer a glimpse of what is possible when innovation meets determination.
Despite these challenges, innovation in the energy sector gives me hope. Companies like Octopus Energy are introducing disruptive models such as Zero Bills, which could redefine how we think about energy consumption, generation and cost. At Forster Group, we’ve been working hard to ensure our integrated roofing, solar and battery solutions remain accessible and sustainable across Scotland.
The energy industry is moving faster than ever, and it’s increasingly challenging to keep ahead. But one thing is clear: we need collaboration – between policymakers, regulators, industry leaders, and consumers – to navigate these turbulent times. Policymakers must ensure consistency and accountability to green commitments, while industry needs to double down on affordable, scalable solutions. And for individuals, encouraged to make energy-conscious choices, the ripple effect can extend far beyond one household.
Scotland has been a leader in renewable energy. If we can align our ambition with actionable strategies, there is no doubt we can continue to set the standard for others to follow.
John Forster, chair of Forster Group, believes the renewable energy sector, particularly solar and battery storage, is poised for significant growth.
“The closure of the UK’s last coal-fired power station in September 2024 marked a pivotal shift towards cleaner energy. The Labour government’s move to nationalise the National Grid as the National Energy Systems Operator (NESO) is a crucial step in prioritising renewable energy. We foresee a rise in smart energy systems, integrating large-scale and microgeneration of solar power with advanced storage solutions. This transition is vital for meeting climate targets and ensuring energy security.
“The built environment faces challenges in retrofitting and constructing energy-efficient homes, compounded by skills shortages and high costs. Collaboration between national and devolved governments is therefore essential. At Forster Group, we are dedicated to leading this transition, providing integrated solutions that support a sustainable and resilient future.”
In September the UK’s last coal-fired power station, near Nottingham, was closed after more than 140 years, marking a significant moment in our energy history. Coal, which once powered our factories, homes and transport, has been the bedrock of our industrial growth and modern economy. Now, with this milestone, we can confidently say that we no longer need coal to fuel our society. However, as we move away from this historically dominant and dirty energy source, we face both challenges and opportunities that will shape the future of energy in the UK.
The incoming Labour government, in a move spearheaded by the new Energy Secretary, Ed Miliband, has already signalled an ambitious move with its decision to nationalise the National Grid and rebrand it as the National Energy Systems Operator (NESO). In theory, this could unlock key barriers that have historically stymied the development and adoption of renewable energy. By taking control of the energy system at a national level, the government can take a more holistic approach to grid management, removing constraints that previously favoured fossil fuel-based energy. The grid, now owned by the people, can be redesigned to prioritise clean energy sources such as solar, wind and hydro.
One of the key changes we are seeing is the transition to smart energy systems. The old reliance on coal and gas provided a simplistic, if dirty, solution to energy shortages: burn more fossil fuels. But this approach is no longer viable. The need to balance energy generation, particularly from renewables, has created volatility in the energy market which directly influences wholesale energy prices and, in turn, drives up costs for consumers.
The election results signal a pivotal moment for our country, particularly concerning climate action and the imperative of achieving net zero. With Labour now in government, it’s crucial it prioritises climate policy to ensure we don’t continue to fall short of our targets.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has highlighted that global clean energy plans remain insufficient to meet renewable goals by 2030. This stark reality is a wake-up call for the UK. Our nation, despite its ambitious targets, has frequently missed the mark. Scotland and the wider UK have experienced well-documented failures in meeting climate targets yet achieving net zero by 2050 remains within reach - provided we act decisively and immediately.
In 2023, global electricity production from fossil fuels reached an all-time high. While the proportion of electricity generated through renewable energy also increased, emissions are not falling. This paradox underscores the urgency of the situation.
Global temperatures are already perilously close to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and we risk surpassing this threshold.
Affordability is often cited as a barrier to the net zero transition. Many people are reluctant to bear the costs of decarbonising the economy. However, this perspective overlooks the long-term economic benefits and cost savings associated with renewable energy.
Investing in clean technologies will create jobs, stimulate economic growth and reduce energy costs over time. The new Labour Government must prioritise funding and incentives for renewable projects to make the transition more accessible and affordable for businesses and households.
The only solution is faster decarbonisation and greater investment in renewable electricity generation. The Government must accelerate the deployment of renewable energy sources, such as solar, and investment in storage and smart grid technologies to enhance efficiency and reliability.
Significant action is required by 2030 to ensure we stay on track to meet the 2050 net zero targets. The current approach to renewable energy policy is alarmingly inadequate, failing to address the growing urgency of the climate crisis, and lacks the input of the necessary experts and organisations that can drive meaningful change.
In this context, the creation of BlackRock's new climate and decarbonisation stewardship guidelines offers a promising tool. These guidelines can help support decarbonisation by promoting responsible investment practices and encouraging companies to align their operations with climate goals. By integrating such principles, the new Government can foster a more sustainable and resilient economic framework.
Meaningful engagement is crucial. Without it, we risk continuing down a path of insufficient action and missed opportunities. The new Labour Government must establish a framework that not only sets ambitious targets but provides a clear, actionable roadmap.
The UK has the potential to be a renewables leader and the election has recalibrated our approach to realising a sustainable, prosperous future.
Looking ahead, it’s clear that achieving our renewable energy goals is not only necessary but entirely possible. With the right policies, investment and collaboration, we can turn ambition into reality. Keir Starmer’s new Government must lead the way.
John Forster is chair of Forster Group
John Forster, chair of Forster Group, said the UK remains at a ‘critical point’ on its path to achieve net zero and he wants to see politicians engage meaningfully with the right people so they can implement policies which will make a difference now.
“Scotland and the wider UK’s failure to meet targets has been well documented. However, echoing recent remarks made by IEA, renewable energy goals, while ambitious, are achievable but only if governments act. UK policymaking for the transition to renewable energy is still dangerously inadequate to address the ever-growing issues and the right experts and organisations still don’t have a seat at the table.”
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